Both fortune cookies and lottery numbers usually show about 5 numbers that can range from roughly 1 to 50. The probability of picking the first number correctly is 5 out of 50. The probability of picking the second number correctly is 4 out of 49. The probability of picking the third number correctly is ... Multiplying these probabilities together, we can find the total probability of finding the right sequence of numbers1,
P = [(5)! · (50-5)!] / 50! = 4.7×10-7.
That's about one in two million. I generally go out for Chinese food about once per month, which seems like a reasonable amount for most people. Taking that as the average and using the fact that there are 3.0×108 Americans, we can estimate the number of people that went out for Chinese today,
# of people going for Chinese = (prob. of going out for Chinese) · (total # of people)
= (1 day / 30 days) · (3.0×108 people)
= 1.0×107 people.
1 - (1-P)10,000,000
= 0.009.
There's about a 1% chance that if everyone played their lucky fortune cookie numbers at leat one would win.
[1] This is the well known binomial distribution.
[2] I'm assuming the fortune cookie's "lucky numbers" are random and uniformly distributed.
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