Here's how it works. I’m posting a Fermi question below. To enter, estimate an answer and send it to “aaron at aaronsantos period com.” If your answer is closest to mine, I'll mail you a free signed copy of Ballparking.1 Second prize receives a signed copy of my other book, How Many Licks? Or How to Estimate Damn Near Anything. Submit your entry on or before June 1, 2012. Don't worry…I won't spam you or share your email with any third parties. Here's the question:
When I was a teen, my cousin Nick (who makes a brief appearance in Ballparking) and I used to play home run derby at a baseball field on Sconticut Neck. Being two years older, I had quite the height/strength advantage and would typically crush him into a metaphorical bloody pulp. However, once we hit our early 20's, I noticed a striking change. All of a sudden, the pulp into which I was beating him was dramatically less bloody. In fact, it was not even much of a pulp:
Me: Why am I sweating? And what the hell's wrong with the score board? It says I'm losing!!!"
|Here's the field we played on.|
 NOTE: I make no pretenses that my answer is correct or even close. Your answer may very well be a better estimate than mine. In fact, your estimate may even be exactly right and you still may not win the contest if somebody else's answer is closer to mine. Sorry about that. This is the best way I could come up with to pick a winner and I'm not changing it now. Like any good game, there's an element of luck required even if you do have great skill. With that disclaimer out of the way, good luck and happy calculatings!